The dust has barely settled on the events of last Sunday, and already preparations are being put in place for the 2012-2013 season, and the defense of our title (read that sentence again, it sounds good doesn't it?).
According to the press it is our forward line that could be getting a reshuffle. Sergio Aguero will remain in all likelihood, and I imagine Mario Balotelli will most likely stay as well, so it is the futures of Carlos Tevez and Edin Dzeko that remain in the balance. The pressing rumour today is of a deal being wrapped up for Spain and Bilbao striker Fernando Llorente, a strange decision based on the players we already have.
Llorente is a good striker, in fact he's better than that, he is an excellent striker. He gave Manchester United no end of trouble in their Europa League meetings, he was a dangerous part of a very skilful attacking unit. At 6'5 it is pretty easy to see where his strengths lie, he is lethal in the air and has good strength and presence to go along with it; although likening him to Andy Carroll would be doing him a disservice, he is very adept with the ball at his feet, and with his excellent technique it is no surprise that he is such a regular for Spain, he doesn't appear out of place playing with the World Cup holders.
Spanish tabloid/rag AS are reporting today that a deal is almost done, as with all players in Spain there is a release clause in his contract, the figure in this case is around £29million and the paper claim City are ready to offer this sum to secure his services. They go as far as to suggest that discussions have already taken place between the club and his brother Chus, who acts as his agent and representative.
Clearly an expensive deal to finance, but on a player who would certainly be a good performer, my question though is over how necessary he really is? The report in AS claims that City view Llorente as the perfect partner for Aguero (something which may suggest the end of Tevez in Manchester), so the suggestion being they want to partner Kun, with a powerful tall forward; now I may be wrong but I am pretty certain we have one of those already on our books.
Even with his vital goal on Sunday, the writing appears to be on the wall for Dzeko. Gauging by his celebration and enjoyment of victory on Sunday, I would say he has strong feelings for the club, and this would suggest to me that his poorer performances this season have not been down to lack of effort, more a lack of confidence. A return of 19 goals in 40 games this season is one that would be deemed successful by many, but there are still many doubters over the players ability. It wasn't just his own performances that were impressive, when he was partnered with Aguero for the opening months of the season, the team were playing their best football, all this suggests to me that we already have the perfect partner for the Argentine, or at least a very good one.
To sell a player with that scoring record, and who scored such a vital goal to win us the title would be a mistake in my eyes, but lets put the Dzeko issue to one side for the time being, what about Llorente? Well as I say, he is a high quality striker, and would arguably be an upgrade on the Bosnian but at 27 I am not sure he represents value for money when we already have the aforementioned player who has arguably a better scoring record over his career.
Prior to the last 2 campaigns, Llorente has notching up about 11 goals a season, and whilst in more recent years this has improved (18 in 2010-2011 and 17 in 2011-2012) I am still not sure if he is worth the gamble at that price. I can't help but feel that should we spend £30million on a new striker, it should be on someone different to what we already have. Cavani would fit the bill nicely or even Robin Van Persie, but for me, as good as Llorente is, i'm not sure he would be that much of an improvement on Dzeko.
Clearly all City fans are focused on one thing this week, and that is the title showdown on Sunday afternoon. Personally I have spent most of my time thinking about it, my mood veering between supreme confidence and sheer terror as every hour passes. I am pretty sure everything that could be written about the game has already been done so, and for that reason I am looking at something all together different today.
As the season draws to a close the transfer rumour mill has been going into over drive, and it seems that one of the positions we will strengthen is up front, and for me, that is a bit of a strange notion. Goals have hardly been hard to come by, and it must surely mean that one or perhaps two of our strikers are on the way out, so today I will be looking at the relative merits of each, and trying to identify which, if any are surplus to requirements and can be improved upon.
Mario Balotelli - 31 Appearances 17 Goals.
To say that the Italian has been at the centre of a few media storms this season would be an understatement. It has definitely been a year of highs and lows for the 21 year old, and generally it has been an upward trend in terms of behaviour and performance. Last year he managed 10 goals in 28 games and so clearly he has been more productive in front of goal and there has been indications of an improved work rate as well, that is not to say that all has been positive. There have still been indiscretions and although he has risen to the bait less often he has still been riled and picked up a few needless red cards. He played an important part through the Winter months and scored some vital goals, but sadly his efficiency has wained. There have been other issues as well, City quite simply don't seem as effective when 'Mad Mario' is on the pitch, it is worth noting that the poor spell that Aguero suffered in front of goal coincided with Balo's run in the team.
Season High - 2 goals at Old Trafford, why always him?
Season Low - Dismissal at the Emirates and his resulting dropping from the team.
Chances of Staying - 7/10 - Mancini likes him, and he has been unplayable at times. There have been signs of improvement this year over last so for that reason he might get one more chance, but should a decent offer come in, we might be tempted to sell.
John Guidetti - 23 Appearances 20 Goals (on loan at Feyenoord)
It looked like the Swedish international was on the way out last Summer, but the promise of a full season out on loan at a top club convinced him to stay, but now we have a guaranteed goal scorer returning to us and he is hungry for games. Guidetti is an interesting player, I saw him at reserve level numerous times and was never convinced he had enough in his locker to make it at a top club, but his scoring record in Holland is pretty frightening. One thing to consider is that he has scored a few penalties in that 20, but considering his young age it has undeniably been a highly successful season for the forward. He is now saying that he will only return to City if he is guaranteed games, and some have suggested he is already too big for his boots. Whilst he has been impressive, goals in Holland don't always translate to Premier League success, see Samaras, Kezman and Alfonso Alves.
Season High - Scoring 3 hat tricks in successive games
Season Low - Receiving a second yellow for removing his shirt after scoring a 2nd goal, only for the opposition to immediately equalise.
Chances of Staying - 5/10 - Could go either way really. The club like to encourage youth, but if he can't be guaranteed game time he could be on his way.
Sergio Aguero - 45 Appearances 29 Goals
It seems crazy now that some pundits suggested that Aguero would struggle in his first season in the Premier League. Charlie Nicholas went as far as to say he could be the flop of the season, stating that £38million was 'not value for money', right from his first appearance, these fears have been well and truly banished. The Argentine has been the focal point of our attack line and he will remain the lynch pin for a long time hopefully. There have been spells where has struggled, these coinciding with Mario Balotelli having a run in the team, but other than that he has scored goals at regular intervals. One of the most refreshing things about the 23 year old is that he has the right attitude, something that many of the worlds top players do not possess. His partnership with Edin Dzeko towards the start of the season was extremely fruitful, and now that the Bosnian has been more or less sidelined, he is working well with his compatriot Tevez, identifying the correct partner for Kun is vital and I can only see him continuing to improve. I just wish he would shoot from distance more often, since when he does, the ball usually ends up in the back of the net!
Season High - That goal at Norwich was an absolute stunner.
Season Low - Nope, can't think of one.
Chances of Staying - 9/10 - There were reports linking him with a move to Real, but to me those seem wide of the mark, he seems happy, his family seem happy and we have no reason to sell!
Edin Dzeko - 39 Appearances 19 Goals
It seems crazy to me that a striker who has notched up 19 goals could be criticised, but that is just how some City fans are. To be fair the giant Bosnian can frustrate, at times he looks poor, very poor, his touch can let him down, he can look sluggish and sadly disinterested. At other times however he looks like someone that could be a prolific goalscorer in any league, and at the start of the season that is just how he appeared. To say that he divides opinion would be an understatement, but one thing that I don't think anyone could question is the fact that the 26 year old is clearly a confidence player. When he has a run of games he looks twice as effective, even more so when the goals are flowing, but when he comes in and out of the team he struggles somewhat. Personally I am a fan and think that if we had some decent wingers and provided him with better service he would prosper and become a really strong 'plan b', but I don't deny that at times he does struggle in our set up, Dzeko is a player that comes alive in the penalty area, having to come deep to pick up the ball (which is our bread and butter) isn't really playing to his strengths.
Season High - Scoring 4 at White Hart Lane, his 4th goal was a season highlight.
Season Low - Getting stroppy when substituted in Munich.
Chances of Staying - 3/10 - Personally I would like him to remain, but I just don't see it, he wants to be playing regularly and I can't see that happening at City under the leadership of Mancini.
Carlos Tevez - 10 Appearances 4 Goals
Where to begin with this one? I suppose the first thing to say is that I think Tevez is our best striker, I dislike him with a passion, but in terms of footballing ability I genuinely believe he is the best we have. Does that mean he deserves to stay though? As far as I am concerned, not a chance. Some may be quick to forgive him for that night in Munich, but that is something I can't bring myself to do. If that was his only discretion then maybe, but the bottom line is that his actions that night were the latest in a string of incidents that showed no respect for the club or the people that pay his frankly obscene wages. The undeniable truth though is that he has got us out of somewhat of a hole, his return to the team has coincided with an upturn in performances and I don't think the 2 are unrelated. His work rate since his 'holiday' are just as high as ever, and he is performing well, but how long will it last? The cynic in me thinks he only returned on the promise of a quick sale this Summer, but the words coming from player and club suggest different. I just hope the man that has the final say on the future of Tevez is Roberto Mancini and not the power brokers in Abu Dhabi.
Season High - His hat-trick at Carrow Road was the day he was welcomed back into the hearts of (most) City fans.
Season Low - His refusal to play/warm up in Munich will forever blight him.
Chances of Staying - 6/10 - Part of me believes his return was to bring about a move this Summer, it was beneficial to both parties, but maybe he will finally realise there is nowhere better to be playing?
Emmanuel Adebayor - 35 Appearances 17 Goals (on loan at Tottenham)
The frustration with Manu is that if he consistently demonstrated the application and endeavour he shows when he first joins a club he would be a top top striker, but sadly he can't/won't do that. Ade and Mancini have seemingly never got along, and there is simply no way back for him at Eastlands. If we can't find a buyer, another season out on load is a near certainty.
Chances of Staying - 0/10 - There is more chance of Joey Barton signing this Summer.
Roque Santa-Cruz - 21 Appearances 5 Goals (on loan at Betis)
I always felt sorry for RSC; Mark Hughes was desperate to sign him and spent a most ridiculous sum to bring him to City, he was injured pretty much his whole time at the club and he never got going. When he did play he showed passion and commitment (unlike Adebayor), but he simply wasn't and isn't good enough for us.
Chances of Staying - 0/10 - There is more chance of Joey Barton signing and Jo returning this Summer.
That pretty much rounds off all the strikers available to us, and to be honest we have a wealth of quality options open to us; that is the reason that I am always so surprised to see us being linked with further reinforcements up front. I think the end is nigh for Edin Dzeko sadly, as much as I would like him to remain I just can't help but feel that the writing is on the wall. As for Carlos Tevez, well things could go either way on that, and I wouldn't like to make a further prediction on his future. Should Dzeko leave, and should Guidetti not be deemed good enough for us next season, I suppose we could do with one more forward. Names in the ring seem to be Robin Van Persie and Napoli man Edinson Cavani. Personally I prefer the man from Uruguay who has notched up 32 goals this campaign, a deal would be expensive to finance, but seeing whether they would take Adebayor in return could be a good place to start.
Back sometime in the middle of the interminably long Summer football break I wrote a piece about players who could replace Carlos Tevez when it looked as if he was on the way out, I felt that of all the options the standout candidate was Sergio Aguero. Fast forward a couple of months and Aguero is a City player, as is Tevez...just.
I am pretty certain that the signing of Kun from Atletico Madrid was as a replacement for Tevez and when he stayed it looked as if we had a wealth of riches in the attacking department, so much so, the man who shared the golden boot last season with Dimitar Berbatov has barely featured for us. It would appear that everything came to a head on Tuesday night and his refusal to play was most likely based on his frustration over a lack of game time.
We are therefore back exactly where we were all those months ago, except one thing is different, we are talking about replacing Tevez....again. It could be debated at great length whether Aguero would have been signed had it not been for the outcry from Tevez, but the general consensus seems to be that was the case, I therefore find it a little strange that we are now scratching our heads and talking about bringing in a replacement.
I suppose it is a fair comment that strikers are relatively thin on the ground, we have Dzeko, Balotelli and Sergio Aguero, but with our wealth of attacking midfield talent and the fact that we generally play one striker with three players behind I think 3 could be enough to see us through comfortably. The fact that Tevez has barely been used surely demonstrates this fact. It does appear however that Mancini is keen to bring in a new striker and unsurprisingly the papers have linked us with numerous options.
It could perhaps be lazy journalism, but I am hardly surprised that we have been linked with Arsenal forward Robin Van Persie, he is running down his contract and supposedly has no real interest in renewing it, but at 28, and with his injury record I am hardly full of enthusiasm for that possible signing. There has been talk of a mega money move for Neymar the Brazilian prodigal genius but again questions about his temperament worry me, and then there was probably the most attractive prospect Edinson Cavani, who is currently tearing it up for Napoli.
None of the prospects are particularly awful, although I do have grave misgivings about Neymar, but I still remain uncertain about the necessity to bring in another striker. Part of the problem with Tevez was his unwillingness to play second (or fourth) fiddle to other players and quite frankly that makes me question whether we do really need another big name forward. The depth would be useful, 3 strikers is maybe 1 light but another big name? For me there is a better option.
I would rather see us go for a young kid capable of scoring, or a proven goal scorer playing at a lower level who would be happy to gain experience and play a bit part. One newspaper in France have linked us and other clubs with a move for young French wonderkid M'Baye Niang. The 16 year old is currently playing for Caen in Ligue 1 and is expected to be a really top player, that would be the sort of option I would prefer to see us pursuing. It wouldn't even have to be someone playing in the top flight, not a glamorous choice but Nicky Maynard has scored plenty of goals in the Championship and has been watched by many top flight clubs, he would I am unsure love the opportunity at a big club like City but would also be more than willing to play a smaller part initially, Wilfried Zaha is another youngster in the Championship that has been linked with some top clubs, Barcelona no less.
The bottom line is that I feel we already replaced Tevez this Summer and bringing in a top player now will only cause problems in the attacking ranks since not all of them can play. I would much prefer us to go for a youngster or someone like Maynard in the Championship, someone who would be a good player but would also be prepared to wait for his chance.
